Summary
Donald Trump has privately stated that a minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine is no longer enough to restart military aid and intelligence sharing.
He demands concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including territorial compromises with Russia and movement toward elections or stepping down.
Amid increased Russian attacks, Republicans are pressuring the White House to resume support. The U.S. continues providing defensive intelligence but not targeting data.
European allies are filling intelligence gaps, but delays benefit Russia.
With luck, Europe can step in (and possibly the other Five Eyes countries in line with then cutting the US out of their own intelligence sharing), and if Ukraine can hold on, the US has less that it can meaningfully withhold. Of course, Trump will eventually pivot to giving Russia military aid, though hopefully European tech is not beneath shooting down some Tomahawk cruise missiles if needed. (And Europe needs to harden its defences for the possibility that US weapons may be used against them.)