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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • The actual swing states all went Republican so they’re in red. There’s a bunch of combinations for an Harris win (electoral college went R312, D226) but Pennsylvania + Michigan + Wisconsin = Harris win, D270, R268 and it’s the option with the closest results in %

    If we look at the results in those states she needed 80k votes in Michigan, 120k votes in Pennsylvania and 30k views in Wisconsin.

    That’s 230k votes that were missing for her to win.

    155 238 302 votes in total With the 230k votes that were missing added to that it’s 155 468 302 votes, which is 0.15% more votes than the current total.

    That’s how close this race got if we look at the electoral system and compare it to the total votes. But obviously per swing states the % is different…

    All of that to say, the 1.5% number is for the National vote, which doesn’t have any influence in US elections.